Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Before 1 January 2019, will the US federal government ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks?

Started Mar 07, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 26, 2018 09:00PM UTC

In the wake of the mass shooting in Parkland, Florida, President Trump signalled his willingness to regulate "bump stocks," an after-market accessory for semi-automatic rifles. (NY Times) Legislation banning such devices has been introduced in Congress (CNN, CNN), and Speaker Paul Ryan has called for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) to ban them by regulation (The Hill) under existing law. Regulatory or legislative bans will count, as will bans with exemptions. The date that any ban would take effect is immaterial to the outcome of the question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 26 December 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1302
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 2720
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.96
2.
-0.956
3.
-0.956
4.
-0.954
5.
-0.953

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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