The Economist asks

Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva?

Started Apr 18, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 11, 2018 05:00PM UTC
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Lula's conviction and incarceration based upon corruption charges has cast doubt on his ability to run in Brazil's upcoming presidential election (The Economist, The Washington Post, MercoPress, The Economist). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "yes" with and end date of 11 September 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 88.00%
No 12.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 187
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 386
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.014
2.
-0.014
3.
-0.014
4.
-0.014
5.
-0.014

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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