Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections?

Started Dec 15, 2015 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 29, 2016 09:00PM UTC

Iranian conservatives include both traditional and hardline camps (Washington Post). Hardliners have held most of the seats in Iran's parliament, the Majles, since 2004, when they overturned a reformist majority (Guardian, Washington Post, Iran primer). The election is scheduled for 25 February 2016.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 85.00%
No 15.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 536
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1744
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.392
2.
-1.345
3.
-1.344
4.
-1.328
5.
-1.225

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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