Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC (9 months)
About
Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see: Superforecasting Workshops, Upcoming Workshops.

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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will happen next regarding New York Governor Andrew Cuomo?

24 Forecasters • 29 Forecasts
Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Cuomo will announce that he will not seek reelection as governor in 2022
59%
Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor
9%
Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial
0%
None of these will occur before 1 April 2022
32%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?

25%

Chance
153 Forecasters • 203 Forecasts
Started Mar 26, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?

95 Forecasters • 188 Forecasts
Started Mar 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 1.7%
1%
Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive
13%
Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%
42%
Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive
32%
Higher than 3.1%
12%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?

95%

Chance
98 Forecasters • 183 Forecasts
Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?

8%

Chance
88 Forecasters • 250 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 15, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

60%

Chance
87 Forecasters • 303 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?

2%

Chance
60 Forecasters • 114 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 05, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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