Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC (5 months)
About
Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see: Superforecasting Workshops, Upcoming Workshops.

Status

Type

Sort By

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022?

34%

Chance
40 Forecasters • 45 Forecasts
Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?

6%

Chance
13 Forecasters • 14 Forecasts
Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans fully vaccinated for COVID-19 receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot?

104 Forecasters • 166 Forecasts
Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 September 2021
23%
Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021
41%
Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021
30%
Not before 1 January 2022
6%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

3%

Chance
72 Forecasters • 78 Forecasts
Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?

49 Forecasters • 63 Forecasts
Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 October 2021
0%
Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021
0%
Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022
0%
Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022
0%
Not before 1 April 2022
100%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?

6%

Chance
63 Forecasters • 67 Forecasts
Started Jul 21, 2021 02:28PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand?

51%

Chance
31 Forecasters • 69 Forecasts
Started Jul 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the median price of a house in New Zealand exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ?

81%

Chance
40 Forecasters • 68 Forecasts
Started Jul 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel