Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC (12 months)
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Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see: Superforecasting Workshops, Upcoming Workshops.

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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?

23 Forecasters • 26 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats
14%
Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most
83%
No
3%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?

2%

Chance
117 Forecasters • 153 Forecasts
Started Jan 06, 2021 08:30PM UTC
Closing Mar 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?

62 Forecasters • 77 Forecasts
Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 24, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Nicaragua
85%
St. Lucia
10%
There will be a draw
5%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?

16 Forecasters • 26 Forecasts
Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 28, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 35
0%
Between 35 and 50, inclusive
7%
More than 50 but fewer than 65
93%
65 or more
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?

39 Forecasters • 113 Forecasts
Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 15, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $1,600.00
1%
Between $1,600.00 and $1,800.00, inclusive
38%
More than $1,800.00 but less than $2,000.00
50%
Between $2,000.00 and $2,200.00, inclusive
11%
More than $2,200.00
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021?

102 Forecasters • 361 Forecasts
Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 42,000,000
0%
Between 42,000,000 and 44,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 44,000,000 but fewer than 46,000,000
20%
Between 46,000,000 and 48,000,000, inclusive
78%
More than 48,000,000
2%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?

115 Forecasters • 473 Forecasts
Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 3,000,000
0%
Between 3,000,000 and 3,500,000, inclusive
0%
More than 3,500,000 but fewer than 4,000,000
88%
Between 4,000,000 and 4,500,000, inclusive
12%
More than 4,500,000
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?

16 Forecasters • 19 Forecasts
Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 March 2021
0%
Between 1 March and 31 March 2021
88%
Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021
9%
Not before 1 May 2021
3%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?

30%

Chance
84 Forecasters • 191 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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