Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

Closing
Jan 01, 2021 07:59AM UTC (2 months)
About
Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see: Superforecasting Workshops, Upcoming Workshops.

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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many total cases of COVID-19 will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report for Canada as of 31 December 2020?

60 Forecasters • 228 Forecasts
Started Oct 08, 2020 10:37AM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2020 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 256,985
0%
Between 256,985 and 342,646 cases, inclusive
11%
More than 342,646 but fewer than 428,308 cases
78%
428,308 or more cases
11%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?

2%

Chance
138 Forecasters • 206 Forecasts
Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?

69 Forecasters • 177 Forecasts
Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and China will vote for it
87%
Yes, and China will abstain or be absent from voting
2%
Yes, and China will vote against it
3%
No
8%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 December 2020, will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia?

216 Forecasters • 423 Forecasts
Started Sep 15, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, by becoming the King of Saudi Arabia
5%
Yes, without becoming the King of Saudi Arabia
0%
No
95%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 15 September 2020 and 30 November 2020, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

1%

Chance
144 Forecasters • 350 Forecasts
Started Sep 15, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?

2%

Chance
108 Forecasters • 163 Forecasts
Started Sep 11, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?

25%

Chance
102 Forecasters • 199 Forecasts
Started Sep 11, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC