Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:00AM UTC (12 months)
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Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see: Superforecasting Workshops, Upcoming Workshops.

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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?

46 Forecasters • 94 Forecasts
Started Dec 13, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 150,000
0%
Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive
0%
More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000
15%
Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive
33%
More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000
40%
350,000 or more
12%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?

55 Forecasters • 113 Forecasts
Started Dec 13, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 700,000
0%
Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000
22%
Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive
67%
More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000
11%
1,900,000 or more
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury reach or exceed 2.25% before 1 July 2022?

36%

Chance
93 Forecasters • 196 Forecasts
Started Dec 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 30, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?

11%

Chance
79 Forecasters • 108 Forecasts
Started Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?

39 Forecasters • 98 Forecasts
Started Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
0
0%
1 or 2
0%
3 or 4
0%
5 or 6
4%
7 or more
96%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What percentage of Canadians will report having ever visited their health care provider virtually online by video, according to the 2022 Canadian Digital Health Survey?

38 Forecasters • 82 Forecasts
Started Nov 12, 2021 11:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 17%
0%
Between 17% and 20%, inclusive
44%
More than 20% but less than 25%
50%
25% or more
6%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What percentage of all light vehicle sales in the US will be either plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) or all-electric vehicles (EVs) in 2022?

59 Forecasters • 150 Forecasts
Started Nov 05, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 2.0%
0%
Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive
0%
More than 3.0% but less than 4.0%
23%
Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive
43%
More than 5.0%
34%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many public Level 2 and DC Fast electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the US as of 29 April 2022?

62 Forecasters • 189 Forecasts
Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 29, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 49,000
36%
Between 49,000 and 53,000, inclusive
55%
More than 53,000 but fewer than 57,000
8%
Between 57,000 and 61,000, inclusive
1%
More than 61,000
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?

1%

Chance
32 Forecasters • 45 Forecasts
Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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