Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:00AM UTC (6 months)
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Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see: Superforecasting Workshops, Upcoming Workshops.

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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Taiwan as of 31 July 2022?

8 Forecasters • 8 Forecasts
Started Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 3.8 million
4%
Between 3.8 million and 4.3 million, inclusive
40%
More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.8 million
49%
Between 4.8 million and 5.3 million, inclusive
7%
More than 5.3 million but fewer than 5.8 million
0%
Between 5.8 million and 6.3 million, inclusive
0%
More than 6.3 million
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the daily reported natural gas in storage in the EU for 31 July 2022?

7 Forecasters • 8 Forecasts
Started Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 650.0 TWh
0%
Between 650.0 TWh and 700.0 TWh, inclusive
0%
More than 700.0 TWh but less than 750.0 TWh
23%
Between 750.0 TWh and 800.0 TWh, inclusive
71%
More than 800.0 TWh
6%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury on 1 August 2022?

11 Forecasters • 16 Forecasts
Started Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 2.60
0%
Between 2.60 and 3.00, inclusive
15%
More than 3.00 but less than 3.40
59%
Between 3.40 and 3.80, inclusive
25%
More than 3.80 but less than 4.20
1%
4.20 or higher
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in December 2022?

18 Forecasters • 25 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 50 million
0%
Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive
0%
More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million
6%
Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive
47%
More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million
42%
Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive
5%
More than 75 million
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 8 November 2022, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?

18 Forecasters • 23 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $3.00
0%
Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive
0%
More than $3.50 but less than $4.00
0%
Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive
35%
More than $4.50 but less than $5.00
40%
Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive
25%
More than $5.50 but less than $6.00
0%
Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive
0%
More than $6.50
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?

32 Forecasters • 52 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 09, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 207
0%
Between 207 and 217
1%
Between 218 and 228
50%
Between 229 and 239
39%
Between 240 and 250
10%
More than 250
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for "Food" in November 2022?

60 Forecasters • 146 Forecasts
Started May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 5.0%
0%
Between 5.0% and 7.5%, inclusive
0%
More than 7.5% but less than 10.0%
24%
Between 10.0% and 12.5%, inclusive
52%
More than 12.5% but less than 15.0%
24%
15.0% or more
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

At close of business on 31 December 2022, what will be the upper limit of the US federal funds target range?

50 Forecasters • 134 Forecasts
Started May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 1.75
0%
Between 1.75 and 2.25, inclusive
1%
Higher than 2.25 but lower than 3.25
75%
Between 3.25 and 3.75, inclusive
24%
Higher than 3.75
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 20 May 2022 and 31 December 2022, will the 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China reach or exceed 100,000?

8%

Chance
38 Forecasters • 58 Forecasts
Started May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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