Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC (2 months)
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Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see: Superforecasting Workshops, Upcoming Workshops.

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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ stock exchanges before 31 December 2022?

55%

Chance
40 Forecasters • 49 Forecasts
Started Oct 08, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the Government of Ontario cease to require people to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to use indoor areas of restaurants?

21 Forecasters • 29 Forecasts
Started Oct 08, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 12, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 19 November 2021
0%
Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021
0%
Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022
10%
Not before 12 February 2022
90%
Dubai Future Experts Candidates ask:

How far will the UAE national football team advance in the FIFA Arab Cup 2021?

33 Forecasters • 48 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 18, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Group Stage
41%
Quarterfinals
40%
Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place)
16%
Finals (1st or 2nd Place)
3%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How much cash on hand will the following *three Donald Trump-affiliated political action committees (PACs) have combined as of 31 December 2021?

33 Forecasters • 82 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $100 million
9%
Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive
58%
More than $150 million but less than $200 million
32%
$200 million or more
1%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000?

58 Forecasters • 251 Forecasts
Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 15 September 2021
0%
Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021
0%
Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021
1%
Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022
6%
Not before 1 February 2022
93%
Private Superforecasting Workshop and belikewater ask:

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?

116 Forecasters • 320 Forecasts
Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 12, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier
0%
A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021
0%
A two-week period ending between 4 December 2021 and 15 January 2022
1%
A two-week period ending between 29 January 2022 and 12 March 2022
6%
Not before 12 March 2022
93%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases will be reported to the CDC as of 10 January 2022?

60 Forecasters • 236 Forecasts
Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 10, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 6,000
0%
Between 6,000 and 12,000, inclusive
41%
More than 12,000 but fewer than 18,000
53%
Between 18,000 and 24,000, inclusive
6%
More than 24,000 but fewer than 30,000
0%
30,000 or more
0%
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