Foxes Ask

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC (8 months)
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Join this challenge to forecast on topics suggested by Good Judgment Open forecasters through our crowd discussion question, during Office Hours, or through our Help Desk. We look forward to seeing your suggested questions here!

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CJH asks:

Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?

47 Forecasters • 82 Forecasts
Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 26, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
The CDU but not the Green Party
11%
The Green Party but not the CDU
11%
Both the CDU and the Green Party
67%
Neither the CDU nor the Green Party
0%
No government will be formed before 31 December 2021
11%
Adam Grant and 024_andrew and ask:

Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?

5%

Chance
109 Forecasters • 143 Forecasts
Started Apr 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Terry-Smith and 024_andrew ask:

Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?

92 Forecasters • 201 Forecasts
Started Mar 19, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 22, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Eric Adams
16%
Scott Stringer
7%
Maya Wiley
6%
Andrew Yang
70%
Someone else
1%
Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?

97 Forecasters • 207 Forecasts
Started Mar 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 1.7%
0%
Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive
11%
Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%
31%
Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive
37%
Higher than 3.1%
21%
Ryan-Beck and Kinnaj ask:

Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?

10%

Chance
49 Forecasters • 92 Forecasts
Started Mar 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
CJH asks:

Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?

66 Forecasters • 179 Forecasts
Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and Newsom will be recalled
3%
Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled
97%
No
0%
Maarten and Adam Grant ask:

Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?

434 Forecasters • 791 Forecasts
Started Feb 16, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 30, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less
5%
Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more
11%
Neither will occur before 1 July 2021
84%
Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

59%

Chance
92 Forecasters • 314 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Econja2018 asks:

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?

2%

Chance
162 Forecasters • 233 Forecasts
Started Feb 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Luckbox Magazine asks:

Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?

133 Forecasters • 221 Forecasts
Started Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only SpaceX
26%
Yes, only Virgin Galactic
0%
Yes, both
1%
No
73%
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