Coronavirus Outbreak

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:00AM UTC (6 months)
The coronavirus outbreak poses challenges for the economies, foreign policies, and societies of the international community as a whole, as well as public-health concerns for those infected or at risk. Help to forecast how the evolution of this disease will shape the world order.

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Tim Harford asks:

When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?

115 Forecasters • 371 Forecasts
Started Jun 18, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 12, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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On or before 14 July 2021
0%
Between 15 July and 28 July 2021
71%
Between 29 July and 11 August 2021
29%
Not before 12 August 2021
0%
The Economist asks:

What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?

119 Forecasters • 533 Forecasts
Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Less than $200 million
0%
Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive
0%
More than $500 million but less than $1 billion
11%
Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive
89%
More than $1.75 billion
0%
Tim Harford asks:

When will the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) first represent more than 67.0% of COVID cases in the US?

87 Forecasters • 263 Forecasts
Started Jun 18, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 26, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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The two weeks ending 3 July 2021 or earlier
0%
The two weeks ending either 17 July 2021 or 31 July 2021
99%
The two weeks ending either 14 August 2021 or 28 August 2021
1%
The two weeks ending 11 September 2021 or 25 September 2021
0%
Not before 26 September 2021
0%
belikewater asks:

When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report 40 million or more confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India?

98 Forecasters • 548 Forecasts
Started May 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Before 1 July 2021
0%
Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021
0%
Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021
0%
Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021
7%
Not before 1 October 2021
93%
The Economist asks:

Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?

20%

Chance
144 Forecasters • 410 Forecasts
Started Mar 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

When will people in Guangdong no longer be required to show a negative COVID-19 test in order to leave the Chinese province?

20 Forecasters • 43 Forecasts
Started Jun 11, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 12, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Before 11 July 2021
0%
Between 11 July 2021 and 11 August 2021
97%
Between 12 August 2021 and 11 September 2021
3%
Between 12 September 2021 and 11 October 2021
0%
Not before 12 October 2021
0%

When will 600 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

29 Forecasters • 36 Forecasts
Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 12, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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Before 1 September 2021
0%
Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021
15%
Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021
52%
Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021
23%
Not before 12 November 2021
10%

How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 12 November 2021?

19 Forecasters • 24 Forecasts
Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 12, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 22 million
16%
Between 22 million and 24 million, inclusive
52%
More than 24 million but fewer than 26 million
26%
Between 26 million and 28 million, inclusive
6%
More than 28 million
0%

Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?

1%

Chance
150 Forecasters • 456 Forecasts
Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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