In the News 2021

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 07:59AM UTC (2 months)
Test your forecasting mettle with questions about world politics, business, technology, sports, entertainment, and anything else trending in the media. Expect new questions every week!

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Tim Harford asks:

What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?

27 Forecasters • 40 Forecasts
Started Oct 08, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 24, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 2,500.00
0%
Between 2,500.00 and 4,000.00, inclusive
16%
Higher than 4,000.00 but lower than 5,500.00
38%
Between 5,500.00 and 7,000.00, inclusive
34%
Higher than 7,000.00 but lower than 8,500.00
6%
Between 8,500.00 and 10,000.00, inclusive
6%
Higher than 10,000.00
0%

What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?

40 Forecasters • 69 Forecasts
Started Oct 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 30, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 33,000.00
10%
Between 33,000.00 and 34,000.00, inclusive
15%
Higher than 34,000.00 but lower than 35,000.00
25%
Between 35,000.00 and 36,000.00, inclusive
26%
Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00
19%
37,000.00 or more
5%
CJH asks:

Who will be elected governor of Virginia in 2021?

69 Forecasters • 114 Forecasts
Started Oct 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 02, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
The Democratic Party candidate
63%
The Republican Party candidate
37%
Someone else
0%
Dubai Future Experts Candidates ask:

As of the end of 2021, will total connected capacity of solar panels installed through the Shams Dubai program reach or exceed 400 MW?

25%

Chance
24 Forecasters • 52 Forecasts
Started Sep 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will be Rivian's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?

29 Forecasters • 71 Forecasts
Started Sep 24, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $50 billion
0%
Between $50 billion and $70 billion, inclusive
38%
More than $70 billion but less than $90 billion
60%
Between $90 billion and $110 billion, inclusive
2%
More than $110 billion
0%
Rivian will not trade publicly before 1 January 2022
0%
Ist191 asks:

Will the James Webb telescope be launched successfully before 1 January 2022?

85%

Chance
49 Forecasters • 107 Forecasts
Started Sep 24, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Dubai Future Experts Candidates ask:

How far will the UAE national football team advance in the FIFA Arab Cup 2021?

33 Forecasters • 48 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 18, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Group Stage
41%
Quarterfinals
40%
Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place)
16%
Finals (1st or 2nd Place)
3%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How much cash on hand will the following *three Donald Trump-affiliated political action committees (PACs) have combined as of 31 December 2021?

33 Forecasters • 83 Forecasts
Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $100 million
9%
Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive
58%
More than $150 million but less than $200 million
32%
$200 million or more
1%
Tim Harford asks:

How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?

41 Forecasters • 114 Forecasts
Started Sep 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 1.4 million
0%
Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive
2%
More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million
8%
Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive
27%
More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million
30%
2.2 million or more
33%
Tim Harford asks:

How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?

51 Forecasters • 169 Forecasts
Started Sep 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 800,000
0%
Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive
9%
More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,000,000
42%
1,000,000 or more
49%
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