In the News 2021

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 07:59AM UTC (2 months)
Test your forecasting mettle with questions about world politics, business, technology, sports, entertainment, and anything else trending in the media. Expect new questions every week!

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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?

54 Forecasters • 340 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower than $220.00/MT
0%
Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive
25%
Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT
55%
Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive
19%
Higher than $340.00/MT
1%

What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?

45 Forecasters • 181 Forecasts
Started Jun 11, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
The same or lower for 2021
1%
Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%
3%
Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive
23%
Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%
41%
Higher by 7.5% or more
32%

Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021?

8%

Chance
49 Forecasters • 233 Forecasts
Started Jun 11, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tim Harford asks:

Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021?

0%

Chance
91 Forecasters • 276 Forecasts
Started May 28, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tim Harford asks:

What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?

102 Forecasters • 347 Forecasts
Started May 21, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 1.4 million
3%
Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive
52%
More than 1.6 million but less than 1.8 million
44%
Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive
1%
More than 2.0 million
0%
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