In the News 2021

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 07:59AM UTC (2 months)
Test your forecasting mettle with questions about world politics, business, technology, sports, entertainment, and anything else trending in the media. Expect new questions every week!

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Tim Harford asks:

According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have "listened to a podcast in the last month?"

118 Forecasters • 345 Forecasts
Started May 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Less than 42%
0%
Between 42% and 44%, inclusive
25%
More than 44% but less than 48%
66%
48% or more
9%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association be ratified before 1 January 2022?

81%

Chance
35 Forecasters • 144 Forecasts
Started May 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tim Harford asks:

How many COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for emergency use or approved by the US FDA as of 31 December 2021?

106 Forecasters • 420 Forecasts
Started May 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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2 or fewer
0%
3
69%
4
31%
5
0%
6 or more
0%
Tim Harford asks:

Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020?

83%

Chance
156 Forecasters • 572 Forecasts
Started May 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
ericbays asks:

Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?

90%

Chance
91 Forecasters • 471 Forecasts
Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 15, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Columbus asks:

Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?

2%

Chance
78 Forecasters • 200 Forecasts
Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

85 Forecasters • 339 Forecasts
Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 2.00%
7%
Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive
76%
More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%
17%
3.00% or more
0%
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