The Economist: The World in 2021

Closing
Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC (2 months)
About
Are you a Superforecaster®? What do you think will happen in the year 2021? Here's your chance to forecast. Join The Economist's World in 2021 forecasting challenge to test your ability to predict the political, economic, and cultural events featured in the annual compilation of predictions.

Status

Type

Sort By

The Economist asks:

Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?

19%

Chance
144 Forecasters • 417 Forecasts
Started Mar 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?

155 Forecasters • 613 Forecasts
Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 5.4%
11%
Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive
86%
More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%
3%
Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive
0%
More than 7.1%
0%
The Economist asks:

What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?

121 Forecasters • 570 Forecasts
Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $200 million
0%
Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive
0%
More than $500 million but less than $1 billion
2%
Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive
97%
More than $1.75 billion
1%
The Economist asks:

How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?

135 Forecasters • 412 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 226 seats
0%
Between 226 seats and 299 seats
27%
300 seats or more
73%
Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021
0%
The Economist asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?

112 Forecasters • 650 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021
0%
Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021
51%
Not before 18 September 2021
49%
The Economist asks:

Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?

3%

Chance
89 Forecasters • 353 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?

96 Forecasters • 224 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador
0%
Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador
0%
No
100%
The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?

1%

Chance
182 Forecasters • 573 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?

0%

Chance
118 Forecasters • 386 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?

3%

Chance
248 Forecasters • 579 Forecasts
Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel