The Economist: The World in 2021

Closing
Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC (9 months)
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Are you a Superforecaster®? What do you think will happen in the year 2021? Here's your chance to forecast. Join The Economist's World in 2021 forecasting challenge to test your ability to predict the political, economic, and cultural events featured in the annual compilation of predictions.

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The Economist asks:

How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?

10 Forecasters • 10 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 226 seats
0%
Between 226 seats and 299 seats
1%
300 seats or more
99%
Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021
0%
The Economist asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?

6 Forecasters • 6 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021
29%
Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021
58%
Not before 18 September 2021
13%
The Economist asks:

Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?

32%

Chance
32 Forecasters • 37 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?

34 Forecasters • 44 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador
6%
Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador
0%
No
94%
The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?

75%

Chance
63 Forecasters • 75 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?

25%

Chance
51 Forecasters • 82 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?

119 Forecasters • 181 Forecasts
Started Dec 22, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party
83%
Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party
15%
There will not be an election before 1 April 2021
2%
The Economist asks:

Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?

11%

Chance
159 Forecasters • 215 Forecasts
Started Dec 11, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 06, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?

70%

Chance
144 Forecasters • 217 Forecasts
Started Dec 04, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?

61 Forecasters • 86 Forecasts
Started Dec 04, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)
5%
A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)
3%
A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)
15%
A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)
22%
Another candidate
55%
There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021
0%
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