The Economist: The World in 2021

Closing
Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC (5 months)
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Are you a Superforecaster®? What do you think will happen in the year 2021? Here's your chance to forecast. Join The Economist's World in 2021 forecasting challenge to test your ability to predict the political, economic, and cultural events featured in the annual compilation of predictions.

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The Economist asks:

Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?

50%

Chance
53 Forecasters • 100 Forecasts
Started Apr 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?

70%

Chance
104 Forecasters • 174 Forecasts
Started Mar 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?

0%

Chance
99 Forecasters • 172 Forecasts
Started Mar 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist and Adam Grant ask:

How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?

241 Forecasters • 447 Forecasts
Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 8,000,000
0%
Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive
9%
More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000
48%
Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive
39%
More than 14,000,000
4%
The Economist asks:

What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?

110 Forecasters • 288 Forecasts
Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 5.4%
42%
Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive
54%
More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%
4%
Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive
0%
More than 7.1%
0%
The Economist asks:

What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?

90 Forecasters • 220 Forecasts
Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $200 million
0%
Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive
32%
More than $500 million but less than $1 billion
62%
Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive
6%
More than $1.75 billion
0%
The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?

90%

Chance
65 Forecasters • 147 Forecasts
Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?

102 Forecasters • 231 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 226 seats
1%
Between 226 seats and 299 seats
40%
300 seats or more
57%
Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021
2%
The Economist asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?

89 Forecasters • 319 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021
55%
Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021
39%
Not before 18 September 2021
6%
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