China and the World in 2021

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC (8 months)
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Join this MERICS challenge to forecast on key domestic and international developments that shape China's global footprint in coming months.
Hosted by Europe's leading China research institute, the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) in Berlin.
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The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

49 Forecasters • 83 Forecasts
Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 2.00%
2%
Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive
74%
More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%
24%
3.00% or more
0%
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

202 Forecasters • 553 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022
11%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022
84%
No
5%
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?

230 Forecasters • 526 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only by the FDA
0%
Yes, only by the EMA
1%
Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA
0%
No
99%
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?

0%

Chance
237 Forecasters • 417 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?

110 Forecasters • 410 Forecasts
Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only Michael Kovrig
0%
Yes, only Michael Spavor
0%
Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor
3%
No
97%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

5%

Chance
129 Forecasters • 279 Forecasts
Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?

267 Forecasters • 669 Forecasts
Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 5.0%
0%
Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive
6%
More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%
38%
Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive
44%
More than 8.0%
12%
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