China and the World in 2021

Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?

1%

Chance

68 Forecasters • 164 Forecasts

Started Jul 09, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?

0%

Chance

253 Forecasters • 596 Forecasts

Started Jun 11, 2021 10:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

91 Forecasters • 312 Forecasts

Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

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95%

3 or more

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?

1%

Chance

116 Forecasters • 242 Forecasts

Started Apr 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

0%

Chance

87 Forecasters • 192 Forecasts

Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

85 Forecasters • 336 Forecasts

Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

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Less than 2.00%

Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive

75%

More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%

18%

3.00% or more

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?

81 Forecasters • 260 Forecasts

Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

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95%

2 or more

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

254 Forecasters • 1080 Forecasts

Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

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Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022

Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022

92%

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?

1%

Chance

181 Forecasters • 465 Forecasts

Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

0%

Chance

175 Forecasters • 473 Forecasts

Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

China and the World in 2021

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Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?

1%

Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?

0%

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?

1%

Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

0%

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?

1%

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

0%

China and the World in 2021

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