China and the World in 2021

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC (8 months)
About
Join this MERICS challenge to forecast on key domestic and international developments that shape China's global footprint in coming months.
Hosted by Europe's leading China research institute, the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) in Berlin.
Answer Challenge Questionnaire

Status

Type

Sort By

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and WBHumanoid ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?

5%

Chance
208 Forecasters • 731 Forecasts
Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?

269 Forecasters • 676 Forecasts
Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 5.0%
0%
Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive
6%
More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%
38%
Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive
43%
More than 8.0%
13%
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

205 Forecasters • 558 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022
10%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022
85%
No
5%
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?

232 Forecasters • 530 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only by the FDA
0%
Yes, only by the EMA
1%
Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA
0%
No
99%
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?

0%

Chance
239 Forecasters • 420 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?

111 Forecasters • 416 Forecasts
Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only Michael Kovrig
0%
Yes, only Michael Spavor
0%
Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor
2%
No
98%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

5%

Chance
131 Forecasters • 282 Forecasts
Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

53 Forecasters • 92 Forecasts
Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 2.00%
6%
Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive
73%
More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%
21%
3.00% or more
0%
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel