China and the World in 2021

Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?

2%

Chance

60 Forecasters • 128 Forecasts

Started Jul 09, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

84 Forecasters • 268 Forecasts

Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

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92%

3 or more

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?

2%

Chance

110 Forecasters • 213 Forecasts

Started Apr 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

0%

Chance

85 Forecasters • 176 Forecasts

Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?

76 Forecasters • 232 Forecasts

Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

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95%

2 or more

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

0%

Chance

168 Forecasters • 443 Forecasts

Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

China and the World in 2021

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Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?

2%

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?

2%

Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

0%

Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

0%

China and the World in 2021

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Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?

2%

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?

2%

Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

0%

Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

0%