« Back to challenges

In the News 2022

Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC (5 months)
Test your forecasting mettle with questions about world politics, business, technology, sports, entertainment, and anything else trending in the media. Expect new questions every week!

Status

Type

Sort By

David Epstein asks:

Between 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?

63%

Chance
110 Forecasters • 521 Forecasts
Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?

40 Forecasters • 186 Forecasts
Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 11, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 3.5 million sq. km
1%
Between 3.5 million sq. km and 4.0 million sq. km, inclusive
4%
More than 4.0 million sq. km but less than 4.5 million sq. km
33%
Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive
52%
More than 5.0 million sq. km
10%

Who will win the US Senate election for Wisconsin in 2022?

56 Forecasters • 143 Forecasts
Started Apr 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 09, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
The Democratic Party candidate
30%
The Republican Party candidate
70%
Someone else
0%

Who will win the election for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District in 2022?

34 Forecasters • 86 Forecasts
Started Apr 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 09, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
The Democratic Party candidate
28%
The Republican Party candidate
72%
Someone else
0%

Who will win the election for Arizona's 4th Congressional District in 2022?

31 Forecasters • 79 Forecasts
Started Apr 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 09, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
The Democratic Party candidate
70%
The Republican Party candidate
30%
Someone else
0%
Kinnaj asks:

Before 1 November 2022, will Twitter announce that Parag Agrawal has ceased or will cease to be the company's sole CEO?

5%

Chance
75 Forecasters • 375 Forecasts
Started Apr 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Tylerdurden03 asks:

Who will be elected mayor of Los Angeles, California, in 2022?

34 Forecasters • 127 Forecasts
Started Apr 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 09, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Karen Bass
79%
Rick Caruso
22%
Kevin de León
0%
Someone else
0%

What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in December 2022?

31 Forecasters • 163 Forecasts
Started Apr 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 340,000 thousand barrels
0%
Between 340,000 thousand barrels and 400,000 thousand barrels, inclusive
15%
More than 400,000 thousand barrels but less than 460,000 thousand barrels
73%
Between 460,000 thousand barrels and 520,000 thousand barrels, inclusive
12%
More than 520,000 thousand barrels but less than 580,000 thousand barrels
0%
580,000 thousand barrels or more
0%

As of 8 November 2022, how many birds in commercial and backyard flocks will have confirmations of highly pathogenic avian flu (HPAI) in 2022, according to the USDA?

24 Forecasters • 183 Forecasts
Started Apr 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 40 million
0%
Between 40 million and 50 million, inclusive
95%
More than 50 million but fewer than 70 million
5%
Between 70 million and 100 million, inclusive
0%
More than 100 million but fewer than 150 million
0%
150 million or more
0%
SE_Meyer asks:

What will be the price of palladium on 21 October 2022, according to the London Metal Exchange?

45 Forecasters • 257 Forecasts
Started Apr 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 21, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 1600.00
0%
Between 1600.00 and 2000.00, inclusive
46%
More than 2000.00 but less than 2400.00
49%
Between 2400.00 and 2800.00, inclusive
5%
More than 2800.00 but less than 3200.00
0%
Between 3200.00 and 3600.00, inclusive
0%
More than 3600.00
0%
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel