Our initial forecast (https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol2/) in mid-February was that there is a 20% chance that the United States either lifts or waives sanctions on Iran 'greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA' or negotiates a new deal with Iran. At that time, the community prediction on Metaculus was 55%.
The current median is 60% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/).
During the talks between Iran and the United States there have been reports about how talks have progressed that likely have affected people's views on this question. Many of these reports, however, speak to the preference of Iranian and United States leaders, whereas in our view the constraints which we originally identified are still in place.
We also believe that news reports about updates in the process are not necessarily diagnostic and we have raised the bar for what a true step towards a deal would mean between these two nations.
We will be watching the Iranian election, as a forthcoming election may put pressure on Rouhani to get a deal done to boost his chances. On the other hand, the election may result in a situation similar to what happened to former President Obama when he tried to get Merrick Garland approved by Congress to the Supreme Court – domestic constraints may intentionally stymie a deal.
Finally, time has also passed since our initial forecast, adding downward pressure to our forecast.
Taking everything into account, our updated recast (>5% update) on this question is 20%.
What are the constraints in place?