There_Will_Be_Games
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
20%
Egypt
5%
Morocco
3%
Jordan
6%
Tunisia
66%
None of the above

The Arab Spring is over. Egypt’s anti-protest laws have scared most dissenters away. Sure, there will be protests, but not two in the same week. The rest are even less likely. Morocco’s royal family, on the other hand, is using the carrot of more reforms to appease the crowd. While Moroccans are still angry, the fact is Morocco’s royals did deliver some of the reforms promised during the Arab Spring, so these new commitments seem legit. Jordan’s stable for the moment, other than the anger about refugee camps. As for Tunisia, a lack of jobs and increased homelessness is tolerable as long as you’re not being brutally oppressed at the same time. In short, it’s just not enough to spark Arab Spring: Part II.

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