The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.
I agree with your assessment. I have been forecasting under the assumption of one completed S-300 (or S-400) SYSTEM. Others have been speculating that S-300 manuals or even just the missiles, will suffice.
@Dima K. Well, GJ still hasn't closed this question, so I think they are keeping an open mind to the debate here. I can't agree with the criteria they used to resolve the question in the Supercaster Platform.
"to deliver" means that the system needs to actually be in Iran.
All that happened on the 23rd is Russia "began the process of delivering." For all we know, that means all they did was move the S-300 from Siberia to a warehouse in Moscow.
Ah. I see. I'd love to see their reasoning with this one. "Agreed to deliver" is not equal to actually delivering. There were so many examples in past seasons that a promise or an announcement to do something (instead of actually doing it) would not suffice.
I would not be surprised if the delay in calculating scores is because the Powers that Be are debating whether to void this question or reopen it. The announced resolution is a classic example of the question substitution fallacy. Whoever made the decision substituted the question, "when will news stories say delivery "has begun," for the stated question, "Will Russia deliver an S-300 or S-400 missile system to Iran before 1 January 2016?" This decision is highly offensive and if permitted to stand, will drive away players. Our scores will become meaningless if this sort of incompetence among organizers of this game were to continue.
"we are just here to make an off-site team look good"
Jesus... From everything I know, that is definitely not true. One would still exist if another didn't. The two are independent and questions overlap is not that big. (In this case, the question was the same but its cut off date was very different. This provided for very, very different forecasts). Finally, AFAIK, there is zero interest in comparing the two.
Reaffirming my forecast.
The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.
I agree with your assessment. I have been forecasting under the assumption of one completed S-300 (or S-400) SYSTEM. Others have been speculating that S-300 manuals or even just the missiles, will suffice.
Haha we should have all listened to DIma K's rumor and stayed at 100%. There is a Superforecaster Platform, people, and we're not on it!
Makes absolutely no difference since the resolution is backdated to Nov.23rd
@Dima K. Well, GJ still hasn't closed this question, so I think they are keeping an open mind to the debate here. I can't agree with the criteria they used to resolve the question in the Supercaster Platform.
"to deliver" means that the system needs to actually be in Iran.
All that happened on the 23rd is Russia "began the process of delivering." For all we know, that means all they did was move the S-300 from Siberia to a warehouse in Moscow.
No it's closed, you can't enter new predictions. They just haven't run the scoring function yet so it doesn't show up on your profile Scores.
Ah. I see. I'd love to see their reasoning with this one. "Agreed to deliver" is not equal to actually delivering. There were so many examples in past seasons that a promise or an announcement to do something (instead of actually doing it) would not suffice.
I would not be surprised if the delay in calculating scores is because the Powers that Be are debating whether to void this question or reopen it. The announced resolution is a classic example of the question substitution fallacy. Whoever made the decision substituted the question, "when will news stories say delivery "has begun," for the stated question, "Will Russia deliver an S-300 or S-400 missile system to Iran before 1 January 2016?" This decision is highly offensive and if permitted to stand, will drive away players. Our scores will become meaningless if this sort of incompetence among organizers of this game were to continue.
That plus the fact that it just reinforces the idea that we are just here to make an off-site team look good.
"we are just here to make an off-site team look good"
Jesus... From everything I know, that is definitely not true. One would still exist if another didn't. The two are independent and questions overlap is not that big. (In this case, the question was the same but its cut off date was very different. This provided for very, very different forecasts). Finally, AFAIK, there is zero interest in comparing the two.
Oh, come on, you're the one that started the rumor! [1] What do you think the GJ, Inc. business plan is? How do they expect to monetize this site?
[1] https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/58871