Mr. Trump's surprisingly good showing in the New York primary requires some changes to my forecast. It's not that I didn't expect him to win; it's that I didn't expect him to win by such a significant margin. 90 out of 95 delegates? Reach for the smelling salts. Living oracle Nate Silver tells us that Trump's expected (mean) outcome is now 1,191 delegates[1]. Let's assume that the standard deviation is still 45 delegates. The result is the following probability distribution:
1,237+ = 0.16
1,200-1236 = 0.26
1187-1199 = 0.11
1161-1186 = 0.20
1137-1160 = 0.13
Less than 1137 = 0.14
Nothing's happened to change my mind since last time about the likely outcomes, which are
1,237+ –> 0.99 (If Mr. Trump goes over 1,236, he’s almost sure to win on the first ballot)
1,200-1236 –> 0.85 (If Mr. Trump is over 1,200, he’s very likely to win on the first ballot)
1187-1199 –> 0.68 (If Mr. Trump is within 50 delegates, he’s about a 2-to-1 favorite)
1161-1186 –> 0.50 (If Mr. Trump is in the upper 1,100s his chances to securing enough delegates are about even-money)
1137-1160 –> 0.25 (If Mr. Trump is this far away from 1,237 he’ll look weak and wounded, and delegates will be much less likely to to be wooed)
So the new forecast is that there's a 0.58 [= (0.16*0.99)+(0.26*0.85)+(0.11*0.68)+(0.20*0.50)+(0.13*0.25)] chance that Mr. Trump will win the nomination on the first ballot. That's a pretty sharp uptick in his chances, and frankly I'm a little concerned that my model responded so decidedly because of a difference of about 20 delegates. The culprit might well be the half-assed way that I estimated variance; further study is in order. But I'll continue to update this business as primary results role in.
Will be v interesting how DT fares in both Indiana & Pennsylvania as most prognosticators have him doing poorly.
+ surprises in either or both might well substantiate Ur model! Holding my breath as Americans deserve an opportunity other than repeating the same old Elite Status Quo politics of HC...Best, Bob
Thanks, BG1. FiveThirtyEight currently predicts that Mr. Trump will get 41% of the votes in the PA primary[1] but doesn't provide any forecast of IN. Hard to believe people are doing reliable polling there given what's at stake, but there you are. (Well, I'll bet there are *campaigns* doing reliable polling there, but that's anther story.) In order to surpass 1,236 delegates, Mr. Trump's target is 40 in PA and 51 in IN[2]. But since he's already 5% off of the pace to get to 1,237, he'd have to get something closer to 42 in PA and 54 in IN to get back on track. We'll soon see!
Mr. Trump's surprisingly good showing in the New York primary requires some changes to my forecast. It's not that I didn't expect him to win; it's that I didn't expect him to win by such a significant margin. 90 out of 95 delegates? Reach for the smelling salts. Living oracle Nate Silver tells us that Trump's expected (mean) outcome is now 1,191 delegates[1]. Let's assume that the standard deviation is still 45 delegates. The result is the following probability distribution:
1,237+ = 0.16
1,200-1236 = 0.26
1187-1199 = 0.11
1161-1186 = 0.20
1137-1160 = 0.13
Less than 1137 = 0.14
Nothing's happened to change my mind since last time about the likely outcomes, which are
1,237+ –> 0.99 (If Mr. Trump goes over 1,236, he’s almost sure to win on the first ballot)
1,200-1236 –> 0.85 (If Mr. Trump is over 1,200, he’s very likely to win on the first ballot)
1187-1199 –> 0.68 (If Mr. Trump is within 50 delegates, he’s about a 2-to-1 favorite)
1161-1186 –> 0.50 (If Mr. Trump is in the upper 1,100s his chances to securing enough delegates are about even-money)
1137-1160 –> 0.25 (If Mr. Trump is this far away from 1,237 he’ll look weak and wounded, and delegates will be much less likely to to be wooed)
So the new forecast is that there's a 0.58 [= (0.16*0.99)+(0.26*0.85)+(0.11*0.68)+(0.20*0.50)+(0.13*0.25)] chance that Mr. Trump will win the nomination on the first ballot. That's a pretty sharp uptick in his chances, and frankly I'm a little concerned that my model responded so decidedly because of a difference of about 20 delegates. The culprit might well be the half-assed way that I estimated variance; further study is in order. But I'll continue to update this business as primary results role in.
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[1] http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/
Will be v interesting how DT fares in both Indiana & Pennsylvania as most prognosticators have him doing poorly.
+ surprises in either or both might well substantiate Ur model! Holding my breath as Americans deserve an opportunity other than repeating the same old Elite Status Quo politics of HC...Best, Bob
Thanks, BG1. FiveThirtyEight currently predicts that Mr. Trump will get 41% of the votes in the PA primary[1] but doesn't provide any forecast of IN. Hard to believe people are doing reliable polling there given what's at stake, but there you are. (Well, I'll bet there are *campaigns* doing reliable polling there, but that's anther story.) In order to surpass 1,236 delegates, Mr. Trump's target is 40 in PA and 51 in IN[2]. But since he's already 5% off of the pace to get to 1,237, he'd have to get something closer to 42 in PA and 54 in IN to get back on track. We'll soon see!
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[1] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/pennsylvania-republican/
[2] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
As usual, good feedback!
https://mishtalk.com/2016/04/24/another-indiana-poll-goes-trumps-way/
More an upcoming Indiana vote. Silver's forecast have a much lower margin. However, the three polls do set a tone which goes more to the point you are making. Thought on you on this one. Nate attached.
Thanks very much, BG1!