Having been burned recently by a low probability event (thanks a million, Sen. Cruz), I'm sticking with a 99% probability of a Trump nomination. Death, ill-health, personal catastrophe, or scandal might - just might - come into play.
"Scandal?" I hear you asking. "This guy is made of teflon, so you can forget about that." Yeah, maybe. But who knows? Maybe we'll get a surreptitious recording of him abusing his minions and laughing about how he'll betray them all once he's in office, "Face in the Crowd" style[1]. I might just take a 100-to-1 bet on the outcome. Presumably, the betting market would be willing to offer me that since the word is that Mr Trump currently has a 100% chance of winning[2].
Having been burned recently by a low probability event (thanks a million, Sen. Cruz), I'm sticking with a 99% probability of a Trump nomination. Death, ill-health, personal catastrophe, or scandal might - just might - come into play.
"Scandal?" I hear you asking. "This guy is made of teflon, so you can forget about that." Yeah, maybe. But who knows? Maybe we'll get a surreptitious recording of him abusing his minions and laughing about how he'll betray them all once he's in office, "Face in the Crowd" style[1]. I might just take a 100-to-1 bet on the outcome. Presumably, the betting market would be willing to offer me that since the word is that Mr Trump currently has a 100% chance of winning[2].
--
[1] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/owen-gleiberman-donald-trump_us_56ce0ceee4b0ec6725e4df31
[2] http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination