Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination.
Reasons:
Trump has
-A 100+ day lead in the national polls;
-A double-digit lead in New Hampshire, and a small lead in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida;
-A personal fortune with which to fund his campaign;
-Mastery at manipulating the media;
-Name recognition; and
-A winning issue (i.e., immigration and "the wall").
Finally, Trump's support among the grassroots in the Republican party is both deep and wide. So, it's striking that many pundits and forecaster (like Nate Silver) are *still* in denial about his chances. While it's true that the GOP doesn't nominate outsiders (i.e., candidates without any government experience), Wendell Willkie in 1940 is the exception. So, there is some precedent here.
Marco Rubio is currently the favorite among pundits, but he needs to actually win a state in order to remain viable. Which one is he going to win? Because Rubio is not going to win Iowa or South Carolina, New Hampshire is a do-or-die primary for him. If he doesn't win there, he's going to be playing catch-up for the rest of the campaign. I'm skeptical about his chances, though. So far, two "strong" performances in the debates have translated into a 3% bump (~9% to ~12%) in both the national polls and New Hampshire. He needs to do better than that.
Ben Carson has an excellent chance of winning Iowa. But I have a strong feeling he'll be a one-and-done candidate. If he is to remain viable, he needs to follow-up an Iowa win with another win in South Carolina. If he does that, he might be able to split the Super Tuesday states/delegates 50/50 (or 40/60) between him and Trump. He has the fundraising strength to go far into the primary season provided he spends his cash on the right things.
Jeb Bush does look like he's on the verge of dropping out. My sense, however, is that he won't do it until after he loses New Hampshire. There is the possibility of a stunning Bush comeback. John Kerry and John McCain surprised everyone by coming back from the dead in 2004 and 2008, respectively. Bush still has the money (though he recently cut back on staff) and establishment support (though they are wavering). But he's been such a terrible campaigner, I would be surprised if that scenario actually occurred.
I'm leaving a 2% chance for Ted Cruz, just in case he surprises in Iowa. He's on a par with Rubio in the national polls, as well as in the Iowa and New Hampshire polls. Yet, for some reason, he's not as much of a favorite. My sense is that his chances will only improve if Ben Carson crashes in the polls and/or Rand Paul drops out.
Carly Fiorina has had her media-fueled moment in the sun. Her polls numbers have dropped to ~3% nationally. John Kasich is not winning any support by criticizing his own party. Rand Paul is losing some of his support to Ted Cruz. Moreover, Libertarians aren't strong enough in the party to elect one of their own. My guess is that all three won't drop out until they lose badly in New Hampshire.
Bobby Jindal has dropped out today. Past Iowa winners Mike Huckabee ('08) and Rick Santorum ('12) may wait until they lose Iowa. Chris Christie may drop out sooner than that. I have no idea why George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, and Jim Gilmore are still running. Hope springs eternal.
I've moved up the Donald after reading your analysis but you're under-rating Cruz. I dislike Cruz immensely, but that's just cause I'm afraid he might win! :)
I see a brokered convention as a "once in a century" event. So, it's not going to happen. The closest we'll come to it is a situation akin to the Obama vs. Clinton smack down in '08. And, even in that case, the convention wasn't close to being deadlocked (i.e., the winner receiving less than 50% of the delegates).
There are a lot of reasons why it won't happen. The main one, I think, is that funding will begin to dry up for the losers of the early primaries, leaving only two viable candidates for Super Tuesday. The only plausible route to a brokered convention is if there are three viable candidates remaining after Super Tuesday (or the March 15th contests), with the top two being almost even in the delegate count.
That scenario is highly unlikely, however. Whoever comes out ahead of the early to mid-March contests will almost certainly maintain or steadily increase his lead in endorsements, fundraising, and delegates. Success breeds success.
Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination.
Reasons:
Trump has
-A 100+ day lead in the national polls;
-A double-digit lead in New Hampshire, and a small lead in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida;
-A personal fortune with which to fund his campaign;
-Mastery at manipulating the media;
-Name recognition; and
-A winning issue (i.e., immigration and "the wall").
Finally, Trump's support among the grassroots in the Republican party is both deep and wide. So, it's striking that many pundits and forecaster (like Nate Silver) are *still* in denial about his chances. While it's true that the GOP doesn't nominate outsiders (i.e., candidates without any government experience), Wendell Willkie in 1940 is the exception. So, there is some precedent here.
Marco Rubio is currently the favorite among pundits, but he needs to actually win a state in order to remain viable. Which one is he going to win? Because Rubio is not going to win Iowa or South Carolina, New Hampshire is a do-or-die primary for him. If he doesn't win there, he's going to be playing catch-up for the rest of the campaign. I'm skeptical about his chances, though. So far, two "strong" performances in the debates have translated into a 3% bump (~9% to ~12%) in both the national polls and New Hampshire. He needs to do better than that.
Ben Carson has an excellent chance of winning Iowa. But I have a strong feeling he'll be a one-and-done candidate. If he is to remain viable, he needs to follow-up an Iowa win with another win in South Carolina. If he does that, he might be able to split the Super Tuesday states/delegates 50/50 (or 40/60) between him and Trump. He has the fundraising strength to go far into the primary season provided he spends his cash on the right things.
Jeb Bush does look like he's on the verge of dropping out. My sense, however, is that he won't do it until after he loses New Hampshire. There is the possibility of a stunning Bush comeback. John Kerry and John McCain surprised everyone by coming back from the dead in 2004 and 2008, respectively. Bush still has the money (though he recently cut back on staff) and establishment support (though they are wavering). But he's been such a terrible campaigner, I would be surprised if that scenario actually occurred.
I'm leaving a 2% chance for Ted Cruz, just in case he surprises in Iowa. He's on a par with Rubio in the national polls, as well as in the Iowa and New Hampshire polls. Yet, for some reason, he's not as much of a favorite. My sense is that his chances will only improve if Ben Carson crashes in the polls and/or Rand Paul drops out.
Carly Fiorina has had her media-fueled moment in the sun. Her polls numbers have dropped to ~3% nationally. John Kasich is not winning any support by criticizing his own party. Rand Paul is losing some of his support to Ted Cruz. Moreover, Libertarians aren't strong enough in the party to elect one of their own. My guess is that all three won't drop out until they lose badly in New Hampshire.
Bobby Jindal has dropped out today. Past Iowa winners Mike Huckabee ('08) and Rick Santorum ('12) may wait until they lose Iowa. Chris Christie may drop out sooner than that. I have no idea why George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, and Jim Gilmore are still running. Hope springs eternal.
I've moved up the Donald after reading your analysis but you're under-rating Cruz. I dislike Cruz immensely, but that's just cause I'm afraid he might win! :)
I think you're right about my underestimating Cruz. So, I've moved him up a few points.
@Jean-Pierre: What are your thoughts about the likelihood of a brokered convention?
I see a brokered convention as a "once in a century" event. So, it's not going to happen. The closest we'll come to it is a situation akin to the Obama vs. Clinton smack down in '08. And, even in that case, the convention wasn't close to being deadlocked (i.e., the winner receiving less than 50% of the delegates).
There are a lot of reasons why it won't happen. The main one, I think, is that funding will begin to dry up for the losers of the early primaries, leaving only two viable candidates for Super Tuesday. The only plausible route to a brokered convention is if there are three viable candidates remaining after Super Tuesday (or the March 15th contests), with the top two being almost even in the delegate count.
That scenario is highly unlikely, however. Whoever comes out ahead of the early to mid-March contests will almost certainly maintain or steadily increase his lead in endorsements, fundraising, and delegates. Success breeds success.
Thank you. Your analysis is helpful.