The Monkey Cage asks

Who will be elected senator from Arizona in the 2018 midterm elections?

Started Sep 21, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Republican nominee Martha McSally is running against Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema in the 2018 midterm elections (Real Clear Politics).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. This question closed as "Kyrsten Sinema (D)." See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Martha McSally (R) 55%
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 45%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 114
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 223
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.415
2.
-0.354
3.
-0.318
4.
-0.276
5.
-0.26

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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