In Madison v. Alabama, will the Supreme Court rule that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison?

Started Sep 21, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 27, 2019 06:00PM UTC

In 1985, Vernon Madison was first convicted of capital murder in state court (Newsweek). A series of strokes has since left him without any memory of the crime, and his counsel is arguing that executing a person for a crime they cannot remember violates the Eighth Amendment's prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment (SCOTUSBlog, Oyez). If the Supreme Court decides to vacate and remand the case for further proceedings, the question will resolve as yes. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2018 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.

This question closes as yes on 27 February 2019. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/17-7505_2d9g.pdf

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 31.50%
No 68.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 213
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.869
3.
-0.856
4.
-0.853
5.
-0.851

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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