The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 January 2020, will the U.S. President sign legislation increasing the number of exemptions for autonomous vehicles allowed per manufacturer by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards?

Started Nov 16, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

A motor vehicle manufacturer may petition the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for an exemption for self-driving vehicles without human controls (The Fuse, Cornell Law). There is legislation under consideration that would increase the number of exemptions U.S. regulators are able to grant per manufacturer (S.1885 AV START Act, H.R.3388 - SELF DRIVE Act). Proponents say it would liberate innovation for self-driving vehicles while opponents say that it would place consumers under undue risk (Consumer Reports, Tom's Hardware, Competitive Enterprise Institute). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.50%
No 99.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 214
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 475
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.276
2.
-0.253
3.
-0.232
4.
-0.229
5.
-0.228

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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