The Mack Institute asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 31 December 2019, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?

Started Nov 16, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

Tesla's Model 3 deliveries continue to be an object of attention for industry observers (Tesla, Forbes, The Los Angeles Times). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "Between 330,000 and 380,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
280,000 or less 0%
More than 280,000 but less than 330,000 3%
Between 330,000 and 380,000, inclusive 97%
More than 380,000 but less than 430,000 0%
430,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 233
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 917
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.308
2.
-0.296
3.
-0.293
4.
-0.267
5.
-0.265

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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