Started Nov 16, 2018 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

The Mack Institute asks

What will be the 2019 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?

Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (China Dialogue, Financial Times). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2019, which will replicate an approach published in a 2015 Nature Climate Change study (The Stockholm Environment Institute). The Mack Institute found that "there was a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2017, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2017 was US $236 per kWh" (The Mack Institute).

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Name Probability
Less than $140 per kWh 7%
Between $140 and $155 per kWh, inclusive 12%
More than $155 but less than $170 per kWh 41%
Between $170 and $185 per kWh, inclusive 31%
More than $185 kWh 9%

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