Started Nov 16, 2018 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

The Mack Institute asks

Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?

Outcome will be determined by California DMV data. Multiple companies have been approved to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in California (CA DMV, CA DMV, PLoS One). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and closed based on reports listed on 17 January 2020 to allow reports covering late December to be included.

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Name Probability
Less than 55 0%
Between 55 and 75, inclusive 9%
More than 75 but less than 95 14%
Between 95 and 115, inclusive 23%
More than 115 54%

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