The Economist asks

Between 30 November 2018 and 30 September 2019, which country will next land on the moon?

Started Nov 30, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 02, 2019 06:00PM UTC

While a race to Mars dominates most space exploration news, some countries are eyeing a return to the moon (The Economist, The Conversation). In 2013, China became the third country to land on the moon, the first since the 1970s, and they hope to return in December 2018 (Science News, Science News). Meanwhile, India and Israel are also both looking to land on the moon in 2019 (,The Jewish News of Northern California). Crashes and impacts will not count (e.g. Universe Today, NASA). Landings by any organization from China, India, or Israel (e.g., governmental, private, non-profit) will count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
The question closed as a) China, with a closing date 2 January 2019 (NY Times). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
China 89%
India 2%
Israel 1%
Another country 0%
No country will land on the moon in this timeframe 8%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 192
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 329
Average for questions older than 6 months: 605
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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