The Economist and   Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will the UK hold a referendum vote on its relationship with the EU or a snap general election before 29 March 2019?

Started Nov 30, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 29, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Brexit developments have intensified as the official leave date nears (The Economist, The Financial Times, The Guardian).

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This question closed as "No" with an end date of 30 March 2019. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
No 91%
Yes, only a snap general election 6%
Yes, only a referendum on its relationship with the EU 3%
Yes, both 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1410
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 2118
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.411
2.
-0.411
3.
-0.411
4.
-0.411
5.
-0.411

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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