Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2020?

Started Dec 07, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: BBC, NY Times. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 491
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 911
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.068
2.
-0.068
3.
-0.068
5.
-0.068

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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