The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 January 2020, will General Motors launch a ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?

Started Dec 14, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

General Motors and its subsidiary Cruise Automation have announced intentions to launch a ride-hailing service somewhere in the U.S. in 2019 (GM Authority). GM plans to use a version of the Chevy Bolt built without a steering wheel for the service (Detroit News, Driven, IEEE Spectrum). However, technical and regulatory hurdles remain (Reuters, San Francisco Chronicle). A service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use will count. A service that operates along a fixed route will not count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.  

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Question clarification
Issued on 01/22/19 04:50pm
We received a clarification request for this question, specifically, "Would the driver registration process for Waymo’s current ride-hailing service (Waymo) count as 'driver prescreening,' and would Waymo’s service count as 'open to the public?'" The answer to both questions is yes, a driver registration process like Waymo’s current ride-hailing service (Waymo) would count as both "driver prescreening" and "open to the public."
Issued on 03/15/19 07:00pm
We have received an inquiry as to what kinds of subsidiaries and joint ventures would count for this question. Only GM and any organizations in which GM owns at least a 50% stake will count for the resolution of this question.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, using only vehicles with steering wheels 0%
Yes, using only vehicles without steering wheels 0%
Yes, using at least some vehicles without steering wheels 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 289
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 553
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.019
2.
-0.019
3.
-0.019
4.
-0.019
5.
-0.019

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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