Started Dec 21, 2018 11:00AM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Nesta asks

Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019?

UK prime minister Theresa May faces a number of leadership challenges as she attempts to navigate Brexit (BBC, Politico)

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Name Probability
Yes, someone from the Conservative Party 15%
Yes, someone from the Labour Party 4%
Yes, someone from a party other than the Labour or Conservative Parties 3%
No 78%

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