Started Dec 21, 2018 11:00AM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Nesta asks

Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019?

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UK prime minister Theresa May faces a number of leadership challenges as she attempts to navigate Brexit (BBC, Politico) Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2019.  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, someone from the Conservative Party 11%
Yes, someone from the Labour Party 0%
Yes, someone from a party other than the Labour or Conservative Parties 0%
No 89%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 2696
Average for questions older than 6 months: 238
Number of Forecasts 4260
Average for questions older than 6 months: 657
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
Statistician
-0.439
2.
Doudtful
-0.437
3.
tsaez
-0.433
4.
mjs123
-0.428
5.
Wildwood2000
-0.417

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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