Started Jan 04, 2019 10:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will the United States experience two consecutive quarters of a negative real GDP growth rate in 2019?

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third, and the release dates for 2019 can be found here: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for Q1, Q2, and Q3, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and the advance estimate for Q4, expected in mid-January 2020. The third estimate for Q3 2018 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The last time the quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2014 (The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis). 

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Name Probability
Yes 20%

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