Nesta asks

Before 1 January 2020, will either SpaceX or Boeing launch its first crewed space mission?

Started Feb 22, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

For nearly a decade commercial enterprises have competed to partner with NASA, and both SpaceX and Boeing have been expected to be certified for their first crewed space missions in 2019 (NASA, CNET, Reuters).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
No 100%
Yes, only SpaceX 0%
Yes, only Boeing 0%
Yes, both SpaceX and Boeing 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1905
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 2487
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.172
2.
-0.172
3.
-0.172
4.
-0.167
5.
-0.164

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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