Started Mar 08, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2019 07:59AM UTC

The Mack Institute asks

Between 8 March and 31 December 2019, how many accidents involving a self-driving vehicle operating in autonomous mode in the U.S. will result in a fatality?

Accidents involving autonomous vehicles can occur due to both human error and technical fault (Digital Trends, CNET). For this question, vehicles include cars, SUVs, trucks, minivans, vans, etc.


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Name Probability
0 accidents 48%
1 accident 23%
2 accidents 13%
3 accidents 8%
4 accidents or more 8%

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