The Mack Institute asks

Between 8 March and 31 December 2019, how many accidents involving a self-driving vehicle operating in autonomous mode in the U.S. will result in a fatality?

Started Mar 08, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2019 07:59AM UTC

Accidents involving autonomous vehicles can occur due to both human error and technical fault (Digital Trends, CNET). For this question, vehicles include cars, SUVs, trucks, minivans, vans, etc.

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The question closed "0 accidents" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 accidents 94%
1 accident 6%
2 accidents 0%
3 accidents 0%
4 accidents or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 325
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 666
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.292987
2.
-0.292385
3.
-0.292335
4.
-0.290935
5.
-0.289734

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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