The Economist ask

In France's elections for the European Parliament, will the National Rally list receive more votes than the La République En Marche list?

Started Apr 26, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 26, 2019 06:59AM UTC

After the "Yellow Vests" protests, the 2019 European Parliament elections are seen as a key barometer for French politics and for populism in Europe more broadly (The Economist, The Economist, Gouvernement.fr).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 26 May 2019 (Results).  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 65.00%
No 35.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 84
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 172
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.541
2.
-0.524
4.
-0.515

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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