Started May 03, 2019 04:00PM UTC   •   Closing Nov 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Nesta asks

Between 3 May 2019 and 1 November 2019, which of the following will happen first in relation to the Brexit process?

After an initial extension to 12 April, Brexit has been postponed to 31 October,  increasing uncertainty around what will happen next in the process (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46393399, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/39042/10-euco-art50-conclusions-en.pdf,https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887). For more on the November 2018 Withdrawal Agreement, please see: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46237012 and https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf.

Name Probability
The UK will leave the EU with the November 2018 Withdrawal Agreement in place 4%
The UK will leave the EU with a new or renegotiated version of a Withdrawal Agreement in place 9%
The UK will leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement in place 24%
The UK will revoke Article 50 4%
The UK's Article 50 period will be extended beyond 31 October 2019 29%
The UK will set a date for a General Election 24%
The UK will set a date for a referendum on Brexit 6%

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