What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 20 October 2019?

Started Jun 07, 2019 11:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 19, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Projections of an expanding Italian budget deficit will likely see tensions continue between Brussels and Rome (CNBCFinancial TimesReutersBloombergReuters). Eurozone member states must submit their Draft Budget Plans for the following year by 15 October (EC). The question will be resolved using "Spread vs bund" as reported by the Financial Times on Sunday 20 October 2019 (Financial Times).

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The question closed "Less than 2.30" with a closing date of 20 October 2019.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.30 100%
Between 2.30 and 2.70, inclusive 0%
More than 2.70 but less than 3.10 0%
Between 3.10 and 3.50, inclusive 0%
More than 3.50 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 97
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 400
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.179
2.
-0.155
3.
-0.144
4.
-0.132
5.
-0.126

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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