Started Jun 07, 2019 11:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 29, 2019 07:59AM UTC

Nesta asks

How many cases of measles will there be in the U.S. in 2019?

The U.S. is facing one of its worst measles outbreaks in decades (BBCBBCBBC,  HHSCNBC). There were 120 cases of measles in the US in 2017. This question will be resolved based on CDC data for 2019 as reported on 6 January 2020 (CDC).

Name Probability
Less than 1,250 9%
Between 1,250 and 1,500, inclusive 20%
More than 1,500 but less than 1,750 30%
Between 1,750 and 2,000, inclusive 26%
More than 2,000 15%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In