Started Jun 14, 2019 04:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 30, 2019 07:59AM UTC

Nesta asks

Between 14 June and 31 December 2019, will the World Health Organization confirm a case of Ebola outside the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda?

An ongoing outbreak of Ebola, a deadly hemorrhagic fever, began in 2018 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (BBC, World Health Organization). Concerns that the outbreak would spread beyond the DRC were realized with cases in Uganda (BBC, World Health Organization). Other than Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo borders the following countries: Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Zambia. An infected patient being transported to another country for treatment will not count towards resolution of this question.

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Name Probability
Yes, a case only in a country that borders the DRC other than Uganda 43%
Yes, a case only in a country that does not border the DRC 12%
Yes, both a case in a country that borders the DRC other than Uganda and a different case in a country that does not border the DRC 22%
No 23%

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