Nesta asks

Between 14 June and 31 December 2019, will the World Health Organization confirm a case of Ebola outside the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda?

Started Jun 14, 2019 04:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 30, 2019 07:59AM UTC

An ongoing outbreak of Ebola, a deadly hemorrhagic fever, began in 2018 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (BBC, World Health Organization). Concerns that the outbreak would spread beyond the DRC were realized with cases in Uganda (BBC, World Health Organization). Other than Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo borders the following countries: Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Zambia. An infected patient being transported to another country for treatment will not count towards resolution of this question.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.  

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, a case only in a country that borders the DRC other than Uganda 6%
Yes, a case only in a country that does not border the DRC 0%
Yes, both a case in a country that borders the DRC other than Uganda and a different case in a country that does not border the DRC 1%
No 93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 850
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1238
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.232
2.
-1.228
3.
-1.203
4.
-1.18
5.
-1.18

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username