Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?

Started Jan 21, 2016 03:49PM UTC
Closed Feb 09, 2016 07:59AM UTC
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Rand Paul 0%
Marco Rubio 21%
Ben Carson 1%
Donald Trump 42%
Jim Gilmore 0%
John Kasich 0%
Chris Christie 0%
Rick Santorum 0%
Ted Cruz 32%
Jeb Bush 4%
Carly Fiorina 0%
Mike Huckabee 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1971
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 3016
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.268
3.
-0.268
4.
-0.266
5.
-0.265

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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