Before 22 August 2019, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
Closed Aug 21, 2019 06:59AM UTC
Regional tensions have increased with attacks against commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the recent downing of a U.S. drone (BBC, Reuters, NBC). The U.S. has accused Iran of being behind the vessel attacks on 13 June, though Iran denies involvement (DW, NBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 22 August 2019.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.00% | |
| No | 95.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 325 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 529 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
