Between 2 August 2019 and 31 October 2019, will the United Auto Workers (UAW) union go on strike against General Motors (GM)?

Started Aug 02, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 16, 2019 04:00AM UTC

On 16 July 2019, the UAW (officially the "International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America") and GM formally kicked off negotiations on a new collective bargaining agreement (CNBC). The current contract is set to expire on 14 September 2019, and both sides are prepared for a contentious fight (UAW, Nashville Post, Detroit News, AP). For the purposes of this question, a strike need not include all GM employees represented by the UAW, but must have been be approved by the UAW International Executive Board and/or International President per Article 50 of the UAW constitution (UAW ConstitutionGM Authority Blog).

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This question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 September 2019 (CNN).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 45.00%
No 55.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 67
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 148
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.438491
2.
-1.228736
3.
-1.227173
4.
-1.120025
5.
-1.10133

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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