lekker asks:

Between 4 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, will anti-government protests in Hong Kong result in three or more fatalities?

Started Oct 04, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

Large anti-government protests, which began in June over a proposed extradition bill, have continued in 2019 (Time, NY Times, The Atlantic). Fatalities must all occur during the question's duration to qualify.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 156
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 636
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.724
2.
-0.724
3.
-0.691
4.
-0.688
5.
-0.685

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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