What book will win the 2019 National Book Award for nonfiction?

Started Oct 15, 2019 03:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 20, 2019 07:59AM UTC
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The National Book Awards are annual literary awards for different categories of writing, including nonfiction, with five finalists going into the awards ceremony scheduled for 20 November 2019 (National Book Foundation, NPR).

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The question closed "The Yellow House by Sarah M. Broom" with a closing date of 20 November 2019.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Yellow House by Sarah M. Broom 18%
Thick: And Other Essays by Tressie McMillan Cottom 19%
What You Have Heard is True: A Memoir of Witness and Resistance by Carolyn Forché 20%
The Heartbeat of Wounded Knee: Native America from 1890 to the Present by David Treuer 21%
Solitary by Albert Woodfox with Leslie George 22%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 14
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.378234
2.
-0.286437
3.
-0.048174
4.
-0.012849
5.
-0.01052

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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