Will Algeria hold a presidential election on 12 December 2019?

Started Oct 18, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 12, 2019 07:59AM UTC

After President Abdulaziz Bouteflika resigned in April 2019, an election was scheduled for 4 July 2019 but was later canceled; a new election date has been set for 12 December 2019 (Al Jazeera, France24, Reuters, Global Voices). The National Liberation Front (FLN) is the party of Bouteflika (Britannica). If an election is held, the question will resolve on first round election results.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "Yes, and a candidate who is a member of the National Liberation Front (FLN) party will receive the most votes" with a closing date of 12 December 2019 (DW).

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and a candidate who is a member of the National Liberation Front (FLN) party will receive the most votes 47%
Yes, and a candidate who is not a member of the National Liberation Front (FLN) party will receive the most votes 53%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 150
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.138
2.
-0.135
3.
-0.125
5.
-0.103

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username