Started Nov 08, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 31, 2020 08:01AM UTC

Foxes Ask:

What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2020?

The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw record lows in 2019 (CNBC, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data from Bloomberg (Bloomberg).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

NOTE 25 February 2020: The Bloomberg link is no longer available. The outcome will now be determined using data from CNBC (CNBC).


The question closed "Less than 2.00" with a closing date of 31 December 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.00 100%
Between 2.00 and 2.50, inclusive 0%
More than 2.50 but less than 3.00 0%
3.00 or more 0%

No. of
Forecasters

246

Forecast
Count

1056

Crowd Brier Score

0.153


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.152
2.
-0.146
3.
-0.135
4.
-0.129

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username