Started Sep 01, 2015 04:37PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 10, 2016 05:00PM UTC

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

This question was closed with the answer "No" on 11 August 2016 with an end date of 10 August 2016. On August 10, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative reported the detection of two cases of wild poliovirus type one in the Borno state of Nigeria, with symptoms detected on 6 July 2016 and 13 July 2016 (Global Polio Eradication Initiative). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific time on 9 August 2016. The last human wild poliovirus case in Africa was diagnosed in Somalia on 11 August 2014 (Washington Post, World Health Organization). Question will be resolved using data from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative or the World Health Organization (Global Polio Eradication Initiative, World Health Organization). Recommended Questions How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016? Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90.00%
No 10.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 328
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1274
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.925
2.
-0.91
3.
-0.903

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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