In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. City of New York, NY (NYC), will the Supreme Court rule that NYC’s previous ban on transporting a licensed, locked, and unloaded handgun to a home or shooting range outside city limits is unconstitutional?

Started Nov 29, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 27, 2020 10:00PM UTC
Challenges
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Various plaintiffs sued NYC in federal court over the limits it placed on transporting licensed firearms in the city, where NYC prevailed (NYC.govLeagle). While the Second Circuit affirmed the lower court, NYC, fearing a loss before the Supreme Court after it agreed to hear an appeal, eased the relevant limits in the hopes of rendering the appeal moot (Casetext, NY Times, Washington Post). The Court declined to dismiss the case due to mootness, though the issue is set to be considered along with the merits at oral arguments (Oyez, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 27 April 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 70.00%
No 30.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 141
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 254
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.915
3.
-0.899
4.
-0.897
5.
-0.893

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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