Between 13 December 2019 and 1 May 2020, will either Moody's or S&P downgrade Bolivia's credit rating?

Started Dec 20, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 10, 2020 11:00PM UTC
Challenges

Amid political turmoil in the South American country, Fitch Ratings downgraded Bolivia's long-term credit rating from BB- to B+ (Reuters, Fitch Ratings). In early December 2019, Moody's announced that it was putting Bolivia's rating under review (Moody's). As of 13 December 2019, Moody's rating was Ba3 and S&P's rating was BB- (Trading Economics, Wolf Street). The question will resolve based on a change to the long-term foreign currency credit rating. Any changes to the outlook or other ratings for Bolivia would be immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 10 March 2020 (Moody's).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 25.00%
No 75.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 120
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 231
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.394
3.
-0.374
4.
-0.361
5.
-0.328

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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